Out of seven rainfall stations, only two stations (one at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend during belg season, while during bega season, four stations (three at 5% and one at 10% level of significance) showed a significant trend. 2014). This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. After total observation of the 35-year period, a record 16 years (45.7%) were lower than the total annual rainfall of the area. Despite the importance of soil moisture, studies on soil moisture characteristics in Ethiopia are less documented. A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. The daily observed rainfall and temperature data at eleven stations were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia, while simulated historical and future climate data were obtained from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) datasets under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of 4.5 and 8.5. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. Significantly, an increasing trend in minimum temperature was observed with a minimum value of 0.005 C/year in GIN station to a maximum value of 0.12 C/year in DBS station. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. Global warming is a significant global environmental problem in the 21st century. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. Conversely, the southeasterlies from the Indian Ocean provide rain to the highlands ofSomalia, and to the central and southeastern lowlands and highlands of Ethiopia. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Is it warming or cooling? 2011). According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. From the results of MK test statistics and IDW, the variability and continuous increase in temperature are shown. In this regard, the precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a widely used method employed by many scholars across the globe (Oliver 1980; Apaydin et al. The Geological Time Scale and Age Dating Techniques, 2.4. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. This Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Before this period, the maximum temperature was 19.40 C and the minimum temperature was 6.20 C, with an average temperature of 12.80 C, while the time series maximum temperature has increased to 20.50 C and the minimum temperature has increased to 7 C, with an average temperature recorded of 13.75 C (Figure3). Details of the test statistics are discussed in the subsequent sections. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. 2015). 2013). 2016). Tesfa Worku, Deepak Khare, S. K. Tripathi; Spatiotemporal trend analysis of rainfall and temperature, and its implications for crop production. Here, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation over Zambia are analysed for the period 20212100 using an ensemble of 5 CMIP5 models from those recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. 2014). Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. Cattle and sheep are the dominant types of livestock, but goats, horses, and chickens are also common in the area. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. Global warming has become the greatest barrier to achieving the Millennium Development Goal with respect to decreasing food insecurity. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. Mixed crop-livestock is the production system of the area and is perhaps the only source of livelihood for the majority of the population. 2013). Five years moving average temperature (19802014). During thisseason, Ethiopia and the Horn come under the influence of the Equatorial Westerlies (Guineamonsoon) and Easterlies.Hence, the Guinea monsoon and the South easterly winds areresponsible for the rain in this season.ii. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. (2011), adaptation strategies are an important mechanism for managing climatic change and variability. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. In this study, we analyse global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) archives to investigate the qualitative aspects of change and trends in temperature and precipitation indices. (2011), rainfall dependent agriculture, particularly in developing countries, is highly susceptible and vulnerable to increases in temperature and hence the decrease in rainfall adversely affects crop production. In contrast to the kiremit season, the five years' moving average annual rainfall of the bega season during the period 19802014 was highly variable. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. The magnitude of the linear trends is estimated using the Sen's slope estimator and Mann-Kendall's test is performed to check the statistical significance of the trends. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. 2012). Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. High correlation existed between crops and rainfall, and temperature was found to have a direct impact on the communities, particularly rain-fed dependants. Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. Correlation between crop production, and rainfall and temperature (19972014). A numerical experiment where the values of T dew are altered to compensate for the RH error suggests that eliminating the atmospheric moisture bias could, in and of itself, decrease runoff up to 14 % in high-altitude regions east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades, and reduce estimated Colorado River runoff at Lees Ferry up to 4 % by the end of the century. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. The High altitudesand the windward side experience such rainfall amount.ii. Depending on the test, the observed data are serially independent, therefore to detect the trend at 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance the MK trend test was used on the actual data series (Xu et al. All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. Tmean, the mean annual temperature; Tmin, minimum annual temperature; Tmax, maximum annual temperature. During the winter season, the Redsea escarpments and some parts of the Afar region receive their main rain. The location of Ethiopia at close proximity to equator, a zone of maximum insolation,resulted for every part of the country to experience overhead sun twice a year. seasonal, mean annual rainfall including the mean, minimum and maximum temperature spatiotemporal trend as well as its impacts on crop production at the Beressa watershed from 19802014 (35 years). A significant increase in annual mean temperature was observed in all stations, with the magnitude varying from 0.03 C/year and 7.60% in DB station to 0.14 C/year and 31.30% at SD station. Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. (2012) found that due to global climate change the eastern part of Africa, including Ethiopia, was drying out. The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. The region is divided in to dry and wet summer rainfall regions.Hence, the wet corresponds to the area having rainfall of 1,000 mm or more. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. 2012). The time series of five years moving average minimum and maximum temperature was analysed for the period 19802014. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. Southeastern lowlands of Ethiopia receive rain during autumn and spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies are weak. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . The changes in the mean of hydrologic states and fluxes by the end of the 21st century are statistically robust, whereas changes in the variance are not found to be statistically significant. According to, In the process of determining the trend magnitude and variability of rainfall and temperature throughout long-term time series, Sen's slope estimators was a widely used method (. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. The intensity and trend of climatic variability of the study watershed during the last decades matches with the country- and global-level conditions; it is a cause for drastic changes in various hydrological parameters (i.e. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. 3. The study area encompasses six . According to Al-Bakri et al. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. 2014; Mondal et al. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. 5.3.2. Precipitation projections indicate increased mean precipitation with more frequent extreme rainfall during monsoon season in the EH region, and a wetter cold season in the WH region. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. Annual total precipitation significantly reduces while the frequency of exceedance of the 95th and 99th percentile thresholds increases significantly. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). This global warming (increase in surface temperature) may influence the long-term precipitation pattern; in addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of weather shock has led to an increase in sea level (Barnett et al. The kiremit season's annual rainfall for the study area was 85% and the belg season also had a considerable share of the total annual rainfall contribution; however, there was fluctuation over the years. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. 2015). Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. The Physiographic Divisions of Ethiopia, 3.3. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. Over the past decades, the minimum and maximum average temperature of Ethiopia have increased by about 0.25 and 0.1 C, respectively. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. The annual minimum and maximum rainfall is 698.5 and 1083.3 mm, respectively. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. They are limited to the lowlands in the peripheries.Away from the peripheries the land begins to rise gradually and considerably, culminating inpeaks in various parts of the country. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. The impact of climate change is a global threat, and its effect is more pronounced in developing countries. Abstract: Since China announced its goal of becoming carbon-neutral by 2060, carbon neutrality has become a major target in the development of China's urban agglomerations. 2013; Pachauri et al. Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. In line with the study by Wu et al. This holds true in both the highlands and lowlands. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. In Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn,temperature shows seasonal variations. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. 2009). . The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. By continuing to use our website, you are agreeing to, Journal of Water, Sanitation & Hygiene for Development, Time series trend analysis of temperature and rainfall in lake Tana Sub-basin, Ethiopia, Potential impact of climate change on rainfed agriculture of a semi-arid basin in Jordan, Distribution of the serial correlation coefficient, Evaluation of indices for characterizing the distribution and concentration of precipitation: a case for the region of Southeastern Anatolia Project, Turkey, Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation measures for rice cultivation in Northeast Thailand, Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions, Rainfall variability and trends in semi-arid Botswana: implications for climate change adaptation policy, Analysis of climate trends in North Carolina (19491998), Detection of hydrologic trends and variability, Adaptation to climate change in Africa: challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia, Estimating the impact of climate change on agriculture in low-income countries: household level evidence from the Nile Basin, Ethiopia, Decadal climatic variability, trends, and future scenarios for the North China Plain, Observed monthly precipitation trends in China 19512002, Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. , minimum annual temperature ; Tmin, minimum annual temperature ; Tmin, minimum annual temperature S...., autumn and Spring seasons when both the northeasterlies and equatorial westerlies rainfall distribution was erratic., in order to determine the variability and continuous increase in temperature shown... 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